The hottest LED chip and packaging industry will u

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The LED chip and packaging industry will usher in deterministic growth

Abstract: the following content is mainly an analysis of the industry from a top-down perspective. On the whole, we believe that the industry will have absolute benefits this year

the overall market fluctuation will not be particularly large this year, and the systematic valuation market is over. It is suggested to look for certain opportunities from the subdivided industries. After analysis, we believe that there are relatively certain investment opportunities in the LED industry. The following is an analysis of the industry from a top-down perspective. On the whole, we believe that the industry will have absolute benefits this year

from the perspective of boom change, it is believed that the share price of LED industry chain may have hit the bottom. The most typical example of industry changes in recent years is Taiwan's Jingdian. The share price of Jingdian has been adjusted for five consecutive years since 11 years, and the share price has been falling all the way. It was not until the industrial chain hit the bottom in 16 years that the share price hit the bottom and began to rise slowly. Jingdian has been losing money for two consecutive years for 15 and 16 years, and the third quarter report of this year shows that it is also losing money. In fact, at present, the market of Jingdian has been occupied by San'an to a large extent

the share price of San'an is also in the process of adjustment as a whole, excluding the rise brought by the bull market in 15 and 16 years. So at present, at least from the perspective of market behavior, the stock price is already in a bottom area. Because the stock price represents everyone's view on the future trend to a certain extent, there is an opportunity for the bottom to stabilize and an upward cycle in this industry. This opportunity is mainly due to the following three aspects, namely, supply and demand, rising prices and increased industrial concentration

first, improve the supply and demand pattern of the industry gbt4338 ⑴ 995 high temperature tensile test of metal materials

first of all, for the chip industry, from the perspective of supply at home and abroad as well as in Taiwan, the contraction of this industry is relatively obvious

take Taiwan Jingdian as an example, the cumulative production reduction from 2015 to 2016 was 25%. Its MOCVD has been reduced from 500 to less than 400, with a significant decline. From the perspective of factories, the company announced the closure of one plant in Taiwan and one plant in the mainland, and the capacity contraction was relatively obvious. In addition, Cree's announcement showed that the company's high-power chip production was reduced by 25%

domestically, the withdrawal of enterprises is also relatively obvious. On the one hand, a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises withdrew due to price cuts and environmental protection storms. According to the statistics of ledinside, at the end of 2016, a large number of led enterprises in Guangdong were shut down and rectified. On the other hand, domestic leading enterprises have increased the ability of mergers and acquisitions. Whether inside or outside the industrial chain, the whole M & A is accelerating

in addition, from the perspective of demand, it is estimated that the effective production capacity of LED chips in 2017 is less than 85million, while the demand is more than 93million, with a supply gap of about 8million, and the overall chip supply exceeds demand

secondly, from the perspective of packaging field, the contraction in the number of enterprises is relatively obvious. According to senior engineer, by 2020, there will be only about 500 packaging enterprises left. The contraction of packaging enterprises will be more obvious than that of waste plastic chip enterprises if they are only landfilled. In the process of shrinking the number of enterprises in these two fields, the industry concentration is increasing

at the chip enterprise level, it is well known that the market share of the top 10 chip enterprises was about 60% in 2012, and has now increased to 78%. This share has increased significantly. In this process, many small and medium-sized enterprises may gradually withdraw from this market

from the perspective of mergers and acquisitions, mergers and acquisitions within the industrial chain, such as the mergers and acquisitions of companies such as San'an and Mu Linsen, can be seen as the process of industrial chain integration, and the overall layout of the industrial chain is accelerating

from the perspective of demand, there is still room to improve the penetration rate. From the perspective of sub sectors, small spacing and fast growth of automotive lighting. According to statistics, last year, the consumption of small spacing led increased by 29% year-on-year. Ledin China (Mianyang) science and Technology City Industrial Technology Research Institute held a product release conference. It is estimated that the consumption of small spacing LED will be promoted at a compound annual growth rate of 46%. In the field of automotive lighting, as more and more LED lamps are used in the headlights of high-end models such as Mercedes Benz and BMW, there is still a good room for growth here

in addition, what the LED industry needs to solve in the 13th five year plan is the localization of equipment and materials. By 2020, the whole industrial chain layout can be basically realized. LED products will enter thousands of households, and the penetration rate will be greatly improved. According to the prediction of the market scale of general lighting in China, the market scale can still maintain a certain degree of growth

second, the price war ends, and the price rise cycle becomes the driving force

the price may rise. On the one hand, the contraction of the supply side of the LED industry is a very important driving factor for the price increase. In fact, the improvement of the supply pattern has a great impact on the price. For example, the supply side reform last year made the price of industrial products rise to a great extent

on the other hand, the price of materials in the upstream increased significantly. PPI is at a high level this year. Since many of the materials required for LEDs belong to industrial metals, the price of industrial metals is now rising month on month, so it can be inferred that the price will continue to rise

after March 2016, companies such as San'an and Mu Linsen led four rounds of price increases. After January this year, the price of San'an chips rose again. These price increases deserve attention, and may not be over yet

third, the pattern of the global LED industry chain is changing, and China is getting closer

the pressure of environmental protection is great, which may lead to the price rise. In addition, another important reason is that the pattern of the global industrial chain is changing in the direction beneficial to China. From the perspective of the chip industry, the third tier is rising to the second tier, and China is approaching or has entered the second tier. In fact, the gap between the first tier and the second tier is mainly due to the absolute advantage of the number of patents held by the first tier. From the perspective of packaging market, China, one of the top ten countries in the world in 2015, has occupied three seats. It can be seen that China is gradually closing the gap

in terms of investment, San'an is the absolute leader in the chip market. In addition, Huacan and Aoyang Shunchang in the industrial chain also deserve attention. In the field of packaging, mulinson is the absolute leader

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